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Advanced Micro Devices Inc. — Beer Score

AMD · US Equity · Tech — Semiconductors
$102.00
Market Price (indicative) · Feb 8, 2026
↓ Price vs intrinsic
Reference price only. Not an official exchange feed.
41
/ 100
Getting Foamy — Est. 59% Speculation
Updated: Feb 8, 2026 16:30 UTC · Filing: 10-K (Jan 2026) · Model: DCF v1.0
Not investment advice · Model-based estimate
Estimated Value (Beer)
$42.00
41%
Est. Speculation Premium (Foam)
$60.00
59%
🍺 41% Est. Fundamental Value 🫧 59% Est. Speculation
Track Score Alerts (Pro) See Model Assumptions ↓

Key Financials

TTM
Revenue$24B
Net Income$1.6B
Free Cash Flow$1.2B
P/E Ratio100.0x
EPS (TTM)$1.00
Market Cap$168B
Total Debt$2.5B
Cash & Equiv.$5.8B

DCF Valuation

Model Estimate
$42
Est. intrinsic value (DCF model)
vs $102 market price
Our model suggests the current price is ~143% above the estimated intrinsic value. The market may be pricing in growth beyond current fundamentals.
WACC11.0%
Growth Rate (5yr)18%
Terminal Growth3%
Margin of Safety-143%

Model output varies with assumptions (WACC, growth, margins). This is not a price target or investment recommendation.

Score History — 90 Days

Pro
90d Low
32
90d High
52
Zone Changes
2

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. Stock Valuation Analysis — Beer Score Breakdown

Advanced Micro Devices Inc.'s Beer Score of 41 means that, according to our DCF model, less than half of its current $102 stock price is supported by the company's existing fundamentals — revenue, earnings, free cash flow, and assets. The remaining 59% represents an estimated premium the market places on future growth expectations.

Investors buying at this level are betting that future earnings will grow fast enough to close the gap between price and our model estimated intrinsic value.

How Beer Score Is Calculated for AMD

We pull Advanced Micro Devices Inc.'s latest 10-K and 10-Q filings from SEC EDGAR, run a DCF analysis using a 11.0% WACC and 18% revenue growth rate over 5 years with 3% terminal growth, then compare the resulting model estimate ($42) against the current market price ($102). The Beer Score of 41 represents the ratio: $42 ÷ $102 = 41%. Model output varies with assumptions. Learn more about our methodology →

Important Information

Beer Score is an educational indicator, not investment advice. It measures the model-estimated gap between a stock's current market price and an estimated intrinsic value derived from public financial data. A low Beer Score does not mean "sell" and a high score does not mean "buy." Past Beer Score patterns do not predict future price movements. Model output varies with assumptions (WACC, growth rate, terminal growth, margins).

Prices shown are indicative reference prices for educational purposes only and are not sourced from an official exchange feed. Data sources include SEC EDGAR filings (10-K and 10-Q), indicative market price data, and proprietary DCF models. Scores update daily after market close. For the full ranking of all stocks, visit the Beer Score Heatmap or read Today's Foam Report.

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About This Valuation

Why does Advanced Micro Devices Inc. have a Beer Score of 20?
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) scores 20 because the stock is currently trading approximately 394% above its estimated intrinsic value of $42. With $1.2B in annual free cash flow and $24B in revenue, the company's fundamentals fall well short of justifying the current market price of $207.32 per share. The Beer Score reflects that 20% of the price is backed by estimated fundamental value.
Is AMD overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our DCF model, Advanced Micro Devices Inc. appears significantly overvalued. The estimated intrinsic value of $42 compared to the current price of $207.32 carries a 80% speculation premium, meaning most of the stock price reflects expectations rather than current earnings. This is a model-based estimate using 11.0% WACC and 18% projected growth — not a buy or sell recommendation. The actual fair value depends on assumptions that may change with new earnings data or market conditions.
What assumptions drive the $42 intrinsic value?
The DCF model uses a 11.0% weighted average cost of capital and projects 18% annual revenue growth over five years. Terminal growth is set at 3%. Starting from $1.2B in current free cash flow, these assumptions produce an estimated intrinsic value of $42 per share. The model is most sensitive to the growth rate and WACC inputs — small changes in either significantly alter the output.
What could change Advanced Micro Devices Inc.'s Beer Score?
AMD's valuation depends heavily on closing the AI GPU gap with NVIDIA. Execution risk on MI300X and MI350 chips is significant — delays or underwhelming benchmarks could stall data center momentum. The semiconductor cycle is inherently cyclical, and a correction in AI spending would hit AMD harder given its smaller revenue base. Competition from Intel's Gaudi and custom chips from cloud hyperscalers adds further pressure.

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