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NVIDIA Corporation — Beer Score

NVDA · US Equity · Tech — Semiconductors & AI
$790.00
Market Price (indicative) · Mar 22, 2026
−$12.00 (−1.50%) today
Reference price only. Not an official exchange feed.
55
/ 100
Mixed — Est. 55% Fundamental Value
58% discount to fair value
Updated: Feb 7, 2026 16:30 UTC·Filing: 10-Q (Nov 4, 2025)·Model: DCF v1.0
Not investment advice · Model-based estimate
Estimated Value (Beer)
$434.50
55%
Est. Speculation Premium (Foam)
$355.50
45%
🍺 55% Est. Fundamental Value🫧 45% Est. Speculation
Track Score Alerts (Coming Soon) See Model Assumptions ↓

Key Financials

TTM
Revenue$113.3B
Net Income$63.1B
Free Cash Flow$56.8B
P/E Ratio30.6x
EPS (TTM)$25.81
Market Cap$1.94T
Total Debt$8.5B
Cash & Equiv.$26.0B

DCF Valuation

Model Estimate
$434
Est. intrinsic value (DCF model)
vs $790.00 market price
↓
Our model suggests the current price is ~82% above the estimated intrinsic value. The market may be pricing in growth beyond current fundamentals.
WACC11.0%
Growth Rate (5yr)22%
Terminal Growth3%

Model output varies with assumptions (WACC, growth, margins). This is not a price target or investment recommendation.

What the Market Is Pricing In

Reverse DCF
28.1%
Implied annual FCF growth rate the
market is pricing into NVDA
↓
At the current price, the market is implying ~28.1% annual growth, versus our 22.0% base case.
Model Growth (5yr)22.0%
Implied Growth28.1%

Reverse DCF finds the growth rate needed to justify the current market price using the same WACC and terminal growth assumptions. Not a prediction.

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC × Growth

How the estimated intrinsic value changes with different WACC and growth assumptions.

Most scenarios suggest the stock trades below estimated intrinsic value.

WACC \ Growth 19% 22% 25%
9.5%$484$543$608
11.0%$388$434 ← base$485
12.5%$322$360$401

Each cell shows estimated intrinsic value per share. Green = above current price (undervalued scenario). Red = below current price (overvalued scenario). Center cell = base case.

Score History — 90 Days

Free
90d Low
48
90d High
60
Zone Changes
4

NVIDIA Stock Valuation — Beer Score Breakdown

NVIDIA's Beer Score of 55 means that, according to our DCF model, the stock shows a mix of fundamental support and growth premium. Our model estimates 55% is backed by fundamentals, with 45% representing speculation.

How Beer Score Is Calculated for NVDA

We pull NVIDIA's latest SEC filings from EDGAR, run a DCF analysis using a 11.0% WACC and 22% revenue growth rate over 5 years with 3% terminal growth, then compare the resulting model estimate ($434) against the current market price ($790.00). The Beer Score of 55 represents the ratio. Model output varies with assumptions. Learn more about our methodology →

Important Information

Beer Score is an educational indicator, not investment advice. It measures the model-estimated gap between a stock's current market price and an estimated intrinsic value derived from public financial data. A low Beer Score does not mean "sell" and a high score does not mean "buy." Model output varies with assumptions (WACC, growth rate, terminal growth, margins).

Prices shown are indicative reference prices for educational purposes only and are not sourced from an official exchange feed. Data sources include SEC EDGAR filings, indicative market price data, and proprietary DCF models. Scores update daily after market close. For the full ranking of all 45 stocks, visit the Beer Score Heatmap or read Today's Foam Report.

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About This Valuation

Why does NVIDIA have a Beer Score of 100?
NVIDIA (NVDA) scores 100 because the stock is trading well below its estimated intrinsic value of $434 per share. With $56.8B in annual free cash flow and $113.3B in revenue, the company's fundamentals more than justify the current market price. Despite being the most discussed AI stock in the market, NVIDIA's earnings power has grown so rapidly that its price-to-FCF multiple has actually compressed, making it one of the highest-value names in our model.
Is NVDA overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our DCF model, NVIDIA appears significantly undervalued. The estimated intrinsic value of $434 compared to the current price near $183 suggests the stock trades at a substantial discount to fair value. This represents approximately 137% upside to the model's estimate. Strong data center revenue growth and dominant AI GPU market share support the valuation, though the model assumes sustained 22% annual growth over five years.
What assumptions drive the $434 intrinsic value?
The DCF model uses an 11.0% weighted average cost of capital, reflecting NVIDIA's semiconductor industry risk profile. It projects 22% annual revenue growth over five years, driven by AI infrastructure buildout and data center expansion. Terminal growth is set at 3%. Starting from $56.8B in current free cash flow, these inputs produce a $434 per-share intrinsic value estimate. Higher growth or lower WACC would increase the estimate; the model is sensitive to both.
What could change NVIDIA's Beer Score?
Several factors could shift NVIDIA's valuation. A slowdown in AI infrastructure spending by hyperscalers like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon would directly impact data center GPU demand. Increased competition from AMD's MI300 series or custom silicon from cloud providers could erode margins. US export restrictions to China have already reduced TAM by an estimated $10B+. Conversely, faster-than-expected enterprise AI adoption or new product cycles like Blackwell Ultra could push intrinsic value higher.

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