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Walmart Inc. — Beer Score

WMT · US Equity · Consumer Defensive — Discount Retail
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Market Price (indicative) · Mar 22, 2026
Reference price only. Not an official exchange feed.
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/ 100
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235% premium to fair value
Updated: Loading...·Model: DCF v1.0
Not investment advice · Model-based estimate
Estimated Value (Beer)
$40.00
--%
Est. Speculation Premium (Foam)
$0.00
--%
🍺 --% Est. Fundamental Value🫧 --% Est. Speculation
Track Score Alerts (Coming Soon) See Model Assumptions ↓

Key Financials

TTM
Revenue$681.0B
Net Income$20.1B
Free Cash Flow$13.1B
P/E Ratio50x
EPS (TTM)$2.51
Market Cap$1.01T
Total Debt$46.7B
Cash & Equiv.$8.9B

DCF Valuation

Model Estimate
$40
Est. intrinsic value (DCF model)
vs market price
↓
Calculating price premium...
WACC8.0%
Growth Rate (5yr)8%
Terminal Growth2.5%

Model output varies with assumptions (WACC, growth, margins). This is not a price target or investment recommendation.

What the Market Is Pricing In

Reverse DCF
39.0%
Implied annual FCF growth rate the
market is pricing into WMT
↑
At the current price, the market is implying ~39.0% annual growth, versus our 8.0% base case.
Model Growth (5yr)8.0%
Implied Growth39.0%

Reverse DCF finds the growth rate needed to justify the current market price using the same WACC and terminal growth assumptions. Not a prediction.

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC × Growth

How the estimated intrinsic value changes with different WACC and growth assumptions.

Most scenarios suggest the stock trades above estimated intrinsic value.

WACC \ Growth 5% 8% 11%
6.5%$50$57$65
8.0%$36$41 ← base$47
9.5%$28$32$36

Each cell shows estimated intrinsic value per share. Green = above current price (undervalued scenario). Red = below current price (overvalued scenario). Center cell = base case.

Score History — 90 Days

Free
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90d High
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Zone Changes
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Walmart Inc. Stock Valuation — Beer Score Breakdown

Walmart Inc.'s Beer Score shows what percentage of the stock price is backed by current fundamentals according to our DCF model. The remaining percentage represents an estimated speculation or growth premium.

How Beer Score Is Calculated for WMT

We pull Walmart Inc.'s latest SEC filings from EDGAR, run a DCF analysis using a 8.0% WACC and 8% revenue growth rate over 5 years with 2.5% terminal growth, then compare the resulting model estimate ($40) against the current market price. The Beer Score represents the ratio. Model output varies with assumptions. Learn more about our methodology →

DCF Model Notes

Walmart is the world's largest company by revenue at $681 billion. Despite massive scale, free cash flow margins are thin at 1.9% — typical for retail. The stock trades at approximately 77x free cash flow, a valuation typically reserved for high-growth tech companies. Investors are pricing in Walmart's growing advertising platform and e-commerce acceleration.

Important Information

Beer Score is an educational indicator, not investment advice. It measures the model-estimated gap between a stock's current market price and an estimated intrinsic value derived from public financial data. A low Beer Score does not mean "sell" and a high score does not mean "buy." Model output varies with assumptions (WACC, growth rate, terminal growth, margins).

Prices shown are indicative reference prices for educational purposes only and are not sourced from an official exchange feed. Data sources include SEC EDGAR filings, indicative market price data, and proprietary DCF models. Scores update daily after market close. For the full ranking of all stocks, visit the Beer Score Heatmap or read Today's Foam Report.

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About This Valuation

Why does Walmart Inc. have a Beer Score of 30?
Walmart Inc. (WMT) scores 30 because the stock is currently trading approximately 235% above its estimated intrinsic value of $40. With $13.1B in annual free cash flow and $681.0B in revenue, the company's fundamentals fall well short of justifying the current market price of $133.89 per share. The Beer Score reflects that 30% of the price is backed by estimated fundamental value.
Is WMT overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our DCF model, Walmart Inc. appears significantly overvalued. The estimated intrinsic value of $40 compared to the current price of $133.89 carries a 70% speculation premium, meaning most of the stock price reflects expectations rather than current earnings. This is a model-based estimate using 8.0% WACC and 8% projected growth — not a buy or sell recommendation. The actual fair value depends on assumptions that may change with new earnings data or market conditions.
What assumptions drive the $40 intrinsic value?
The DCF model uses a 8.0% weighted average cost of capital and projects 8% annual revenue growth over five years. Terminal growth is set at 2.5%. Starting from $13.1B in current free cash flow, these assumptions produce an estimated intrinsic value of $40 per share. The model is most sensitive to the growth rate and WACC inputs — small changes in either significantly alter the output.
What could change Walmart Inc.'s Beer Score?
Walmart's 70% foam premium prices in tech-company growth on grocery-store margins. E-commerce and advertising revenue are growing rapidly but remain small relative to the $681B revenue base. Margin compression from investments in automation and delivery infrastructure could persist. Tariff exposure on imported goods is significant. If growth deceleration occurs, the premium multiple deflates quickly.

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