Tesla Inc. — Beer Score

Tesla Stock Valuation Analysis — Beer Score Breakdown

Tesla's Beer Score of 42 means that, according to our DCF model, less than half of its current $390 stock price is supported by the company's existing fundamentals — revenue, earnings, free cash flow, and assets. The remaining 58% represents an estimated premium the market places on future growth expectations, brand momentum, and investor sentiment.

This does not mean Tesla is a bad investment. It means the stock's price has moved significantly beyond what a conservative Discounted Cash Flow model would estimate using today's financial data. Investors buying at this level are betting that Tesla's future earnings will grow fast enough to close the gap between price and our model's estimated intrinsic value.

What Drives Tesla's Foam?

Tesla trades at a P/E ratio of 173x — far above the S&P 500 average of roughly 22x. The market prices Tesla not as an automaker but as a technology-energy conglomerate with exposure to EVs, energy storage, autonomous driving, and AI. This forward-looking narrative creates a wide gap between current earnings power and market valuation.

By comparison, traditional automakers like General Motors (Beer Score 91) and Ford (Beer Score 79) trade much closer to their estimated fundamental value, reflecting more modest growth expectations.

How Beer Score Is Calculated for TSLA

We pull Tesla's latest 10-K and 10-Q filings from SEC EDGAR, run a DCF analysis using a 10.2% WACC and 18% revenue growth rate over 5 years with 3% terminal growth, then compare the resulting model estimate ($164) against the current market price ($390). The Beer Score of 42 represents the ratio: $164 ÷ $390 = 42%. Model output varies with assumptions. Learn more about our methodology →

Important Information

Beer Score is an educational indicator, not investment advice. It measures the model-estimated gap between a stock's current market price and an estimated intrinsic value derived from public financial data. A low Beer Score does not mean "sell" and a high score does not mean "buy." Past Beer Score patterns do not predict future price movements. Model output varies with assumptions (WACC, growth rate, terminal growth, margins).

Prices shown are indicative reference prices for educational purposes only and are not sourced from an official exchange feed. Data sources include SEC EDGAR filings (10-K and 10-Q), indicative market price data, and proprietary DCF models. Scores update daily after market close. For the full ranking of all 45 stocks, visit the Beer Score Heatmap or read Today's Foam Report.