Skip to main content
Home Report Heatmap Pricing Get Started
Home / Heatmap / NIO
NIO

NIO Inc. — Beer Score

NIO · US Equity · Consumer — Electric Vehicles
$5.40
Market Price (indicative) · Feb 7, 2026
−$0.12 (−2.17%) today
Reference price only. Not an official exchange feed.
28
/ 100
Heavy Foam — Est. 72% Speculation
Updated: Feb 7, 2026 16:30 UTC·Filing: 10-Q (Nov 4, 2025)·Model: DCF v1.0
Not investment advice · Model-based estimate
Estimated Value (Beer)
$1.51
28%
Est. Speculation Premium (Foam)
$3.89
72%
🍺 28% Est. Fundamental Value🫧 72% Est. Speculation
Track Score Alerts (Pro) See Model Assumptions ↓

Key Financials

TTM
Revenue$8.6B
Net Income$-2.8B
Free Cash Flow$-3.2B
P/E RatioN/A
EPS (TTM)$-1.55
Market Cap$11B
Total Debt$6.7B
Cash & Equiv.$4.2B

DCF Valuation

Model Estimate
$1
Est. intrinsic value (DCF model)
vs $5.40 market price
↓
Our model suggests the current price is ~258% above the estimated intrinsic value. The market may be pricing in growth beyond current fundamentals.
WACC13.0%
Growth Rate (5yr)25%
Terminal Growth3%
Margin of Safety~−258%

Model output varies with assumptions (WACC, growth, margins). This is not a price target or investment recommendation.

Score History — 90 Days

Pro
90d Low
22
90d High
32
Zone Changes
4
▸_
Unlock Full Score HistoryAlerts · Chart export · Peer compare

NIO Stock Valuation — Beer Score Breakdown

NIO's Beer Score of 28 means that, according to our DCF model, the stock is trading well above our model's estimated intrinsic value. Only an estimated 28% of the price is backed by current fundamentals — 72% appears to be speculation premium.

How Beer Score Is Calculated for NIO

We pull NIO's latest SEC filings from EDGAR, run a DCF analysis using a 13.0% WACC and 25% revenue growth rate over 5 years with 3% terminal growth, then compare the resulting model estimate ($1) against the current market price ($5.40). The Beer Score of 28 represents the ratio. Model output varies with assumptions. Learn more about our methodology →

Important Information

Beer Score is an educational indicator, not investment advice. It measures the model-estimated gap between a stock's current market price and an estimated intrinsic value derived from public financial data. A low Beer Score does not mean "sell" and a high score does not mean "buy." Model output varies with assumptions (WACC, growth rate, terminal growth, margins).

Prices shown are indicative reference prices for educational purposes only and are not sourced from an official exchange feed. Data sources include SEC EDGAR filings, indicative market price data, and proprietary DCF models. Scores update daily after market close. For the full ranking of all 45 stocks, visit the Beer Score Heatmap or read Today's Foam Report.

Track NIO's Beer Score Over Time

Get daily score changes, alerts when foam levels shift, and full history charts with Pro.

See Pro Plans → View All 45 Stocks

About This Valuation

Why does NIO have a Beer Score of 20?
NIO (NIO) scores 20 because the stock is currently trading approximately 395% above its estimated intrinsic value of $1. With $-3.2B in annual free cash flow and $8.6B in revenue, the company's fundamentals fall well short of justifying the current market price of $4.95 per share. The Beer Score reflects that 20% of the price is backed by estimated fundamental value.
Is NIO overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our DCF model, NIO appears significantly overvalued. The estimated intrinsic value of $1 compared to the current price of $4.95 carries a 80% speculation premium, meaning most of the stock price reflects expectations rather than current earnings. This is a model-based estimate using 13.0% WACC and 25% projected growth — not a buy or sell recommendation. The actual fair value depends on assumptions that may change with new earnings data or market conditions.
What assumptions drive the $1 intrinsic value?
The DCF model uses a 13.0% weighted average cost of capital and projects 25% annual revenue growth over five years. Terminal growth is set at 3%. Starting from $-3.2B in current free cash flow, these assumptions produce an estimated intrinsic value of $1 per share. The model is most sensitive to the growth rate and WACC inputs — small changes in either significantly alter the output.
What could change NIO's Beer Score?
NIO's 80% foam premium reflects a company still burning cash with no clear path to sustained profitability. Chinese EV market competition from BYD, Li Auto, and Xpeng compresses margins. Battery swap infrastructure requires enormous ongoing capex. European expansion has been slower than projected. The stock is priced on decade-out revenue projections with high execution risk.

Compare Similar Stocks

RIVN17 TSLA39 F57
View all stock valuations →