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Rivian Automotive Inc. — Beer Score

RIVN · US Equity · Consumer — Electric Vehicles
$14.50
Market Price (indicative) · Feb 7, 2026
−$0.35 (−2.36%) today
Reference price only. Not an official exchange feed.
22
/ 100
All Foam — Est. 78% Speculation
Updated: Feb 7, 2026 16:30 UTC·Filing: 10-Q (Nov 4, 2025)·Model: DCF v1.0
Not investment advice · Model-based estimate
Estimated Value (Beer)
$3.19
22%
Est. Speculation Premium (Foam)
$11.31
78%
🍺 22% Est. Fundamental Value🫧 78% Est. Speculation
Track Score Alerts (Pro) See Model Assumptions ↓

Key Financials

TTM
Revenue$4.4B
Net Income$-5.4B
Free Cash Flow$-5.8B
P/E RatioN/A
EPS (TTM)$-5.43
Market Cap$15B
Total Debt$4.7B
Cash & Equiv.$7.9B

DCF Valuation

Model Estimate
$3
Est. intrinsic value (DCF model)
vs $14.50 market price
↓
Our model suggests the current price is ~355% above the estimated intrinsic value. The market may be pricing in growth beyond current fundamentals.
WACC14.0%
Growth Rate (5yr)30%
Terminal Growth3%
Margin of Safety~−355%

Model output varies with assumptions (WACC, growth, margins). This is not a price target or investment recommendation.

Score History — 90 Days

Pro
90d Low
18
90d High
27
Zone Changes
3
▸_
Unlock Full Score HistoryAlerts · Chart export · Peer compare

Rivian Stock Valuation — Beer Score Breakdown

Rivian's Beer Score of 22 means that, according to our DCF model, the stock is trading well above our model's estimated intrinsic value. Only an estimated 22% of the price is backed by current fundamentals — 78% appears to be speculation premium.

How Beer Score Is Calculated for RIVN

We pull Rivian's latest SEC filings from EDGAR, run a DCF analysis using a 14.0% WACC and 30% revenue growth rate over 5 years with 3% terminal growth, then compare the resulting model estimate ($3) against the current market price ($14.50). The Beer Score of 22 represents the ratio. Model output varies with assumptions. Learn more about our methodology →

Important Information

Beer Score is an educational indicator, not investment advice. It measures the model-estimated gap between a stock's current market price and an estimated intrinsic value derived from public financial data. A low Beer Score does not mean "sell" and a high score does not mean "buy." Model output varies with assumptions (WACC, growth rate, terminal growth, margins).

Prices shown are indicative reference prices for educational purposes only and are not sourced from an official exchange feed. Data sources include SEC EDGAR filings, indicative market price data, and proprietary DCF models. Scores update daily after market close. For the full ranking of all 45 stocks, visit the Beer Score Heatmap or read Today's Foam Report.

Track Rivian's Beer Score Over Time

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About This Valuation

Why does Rivian have a Beer Score of 17?
Rivian (RIVN) scores 17 because the stock is currently trading approximately 491% above its estimated intrinsic value of $3. With $-5.8B in annual free cash flow and $4.4B in revenue, the company's fundamentals fall well short of justifying the current market price of $17.73 per share. The Beer Score reflects that 17% of the price is backed by estimated fundamental value.
Is RIVN overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our DCF model, Rivian appears significantly overvalued. The estimated intrinsic value of $3 compared to the current price of $17.73 carries a 83% speculation premium, meaning most of the stock price reflects expectations rather than current earnings. This is a model-based estimate using 14.0% WACC and 30% projected growth — not a buy or sell recommendation. The actual fair value depends on assumptions that may change with new earnings data or market conditions.
What assumptions drive the $3 intrinsic value?
The DCF model uses a 14.0% weighted average cost of capital and projects 30% annual revenue growth over five years. Terminal growth is set at 3%. Starting from $-5.8B in current free cash flow, these assumptions produce an estimated intrinsic value of $3 per share. The model is most sensitive to the growth rate and WACC inputs — small changes in either significantly alter the output.
What could change Rivian's Beer Score?
Rivian's 83% foam premium reflects massive cash burn and an unproven path to profitability. Production ramp of the R2 platform at the Normal, Illinois plant is critical — delays would extend the cash runway problem. Competition from established automakers launching electric SUVs and trucks intensifies. The Volkswagen joint venture provides technology validation but requires operational execution.

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