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Microsoft Corp. — Beer Score

MSFT · US Equity · Tech — Cloud & Software
$420.00
Market Price (indicative) · Feb 8, 2026
↓ Price vs intrinsic
Reference price only. Not an official exchange feed.
44
/ 100
Getting Foamy — Est. 56% Speculation
Updated: Feb 8, 2026 16:30 UTC · Filing: 10-K (Jan 2026) · Model: DCF v1.0
Not investment advice · Model-based estimate
Estimated Value (Beer)
$185.00
44%
Est. Speculation Premium (Foam)
$235.00
56%
🍺 44% Est. Fundamental Value 🫧 56% Est. Speculation
Track Score Alerts (Pro) See Model Assumptions ↓

Key Financials

TTM
Revenue$254B
Net Income$90B
Free Cash Flow$74B
P/E Ratio35.0x
EPS (TTM)$12.10
Market Cap$3.1T
Total Debt$53B
Cash & Equiv.$78B

DCF Valuation

Model Estimate
$185
Est. intrinsic value (DCF model)
vs $420 market price
Our model suggests the current price is ~127% above the estimated intrinsic value. The market may be pricing in growth beyond current fundamentals.
WACC9.5%
Growth Rate (5yr)15%
Terminal Growth3%
Margin of Safety-127%

Model output varies with assumptions (WACC, growth, margins). This is not a price target or investment recommendation.

Score History — 90 Days

Pro
90d Low
29
90d High
56
Zone Changes
2

Microsoft Corp. Stock Valuation Analysis — Beer Score Breakdown

Microsoft Corp.'s Beer Score of 44 means that, according to our DCF model, less than half of its current $420 stock price is supported by the company's existing fundamentals — revenue, earnings, free cash flow, and assets. The remaining 56% represents an estimated premium the market places on future growth expectations.

Investors buying at this level are betting that future earnings will grow fast enough to close the gap between price and our model estimated intrinsic value.

How Beer Score Is Calculated for MSFT

We pull Microsoft Corp.'s latest 10-K and 10-Q filings from SEC EDGAR, run a DCF analysis using a 9.5% WACC and 15% revenue growth rate over 5 years with 3% terminal growth, then compare the resulting model estimate ($185) against the current market price ($420). The Beer Score of 44 represents the ratio: $185 ÷ $420 = 44%. Model output varies with assumptions. Learn more about our methodology →

Important Information

Beer Score is an educational indicator, not investment advice. It measures the model-estimated gap between a stock's current market price and an estimated intrinsic value derived from public financial data. A low Beer Score does not mean "sell" and a high score does not mean "buy." Past Beer Score patterns do not predict future price movements. Model output varies with assumptions (WACC, growth rate, terminal growth, margins).

Prices shown are indicative reference prices for educational purposes only and are not sourced from an official exchange feed. Data sources include SEC EDGAR filings (10-K and 10-Q), indicative market price data, and proprietary DCF models. Scores update daily after market close. For the full ranking of all stocks, visit the Beer Score Heatmap or read Today's Foam Report.

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About This Valuation

Why does Microsoft Corp. have a Beer Score of 46?
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) scores 46 because the stock is currently trading approximately 117% above its estimated intrinsic value of $185. With $74B in annual free cash flow and $254B in revenue, the company's fundamentals partially justify the current market price of $401.32 per share. The Beer Score reflects that 46% of the price is backed by estimated fundamental value.
Is MSFT overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our DCF model, Microsoft Corp. appears significantly overvalued. The estimated intrinsic value of $185 compared to the current price of $401.32 carries a 54% speculation premium, meaning most of the stock price reflects expectations rather than current earnings. This is a model-based estimate using 9.5% WACC and 15% projected growth — not a buy or sell recommendation. The actual fair value depends on assumptions that may change with new earnings data or market conditions.
What assumptions drive the $185 intrinsic value?
The DCF model uses a 9.5% weighted average cost of capital and projects 15% annual revenue growth over five years. Terminal growth is set at 3%. Starting from $74B in current free cash flow, these assumptions produce an estimated intrinsic value of $185 per share. The model is most sensitive to the growth rate and WACC inputs — small changes in either significantly alter the output.
What could change Microsoft Corp.'s Beer Score?
Microsoft's valuation premium depends on Azure AI revenue growth justifying massive capex. If enterprise AI adoption is slower than expected, the return on $80B+ annual infrastructure investment becomes questionable. Competition from AWS and Google Cloud limits pricing power. Conversely, Copilot monetization across Office 365 and GitHub could create a new high-margin revenue stream at scale.

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