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Shopify Inc. — Beer Score

SHOP · US Equity · Tech — E-Commerce Platform
$118.00
Market Price (indicative) · Mar 22, 2026
−$0.75 (−0.63%) today
Reference price only. Not an official exchange feed.
33
/ 100
Mostly Foam — Est. 67% Speculation
197% premium to fair value
Updated: Feb 7, 2026 16:30 UTC·Filing: 10-Q (Nov 4, 2025)·Model: DCF v1.0
Not investment advice · Model-based estimate
Estimated Value (Beer)
$38.94
33%
Est. Speculation Premium (Foam)
$79.06
67%
🍺 33% Est. Fundamental Value🫧 67% Est. Speculation
Track Score Alerts (Coming Soon) See Model Assumptions ↓

Key Financials

TTM
Revenue$8.9B
Net Income$1.3B
Free Cash Flow$1.6B
P/E Ratio117x
EPS (TTM)$1.01
Market Cap$152B
Total Debt$0.9B
Cash & Equiv.$4.9B

DCF Valuation

Model Estimate
$38
Est. intrinsic value (DCF model)
vs $118.00 market price
↓
Our model suggests the current price is ~203% above the estimated intrinsic value. The market may be pricing in growth beyond current fundamentals.
WACC11.5%
Growth Rate (5yr)20%
Terminal Growth3%

Model output varies with assumptions (WACC, growth, margins). This is not a price target or investment recommendation.

What the Market Is Pricing In

Reverse DCF
>50%
Implied annual FCF growth rate the
market is pricing into SHOP
!
At the current price, the market is implying >50% annual growth to justify the valuation, versus our 20.0% base case.
Model Growth (5yr)20.0%
Implied Growth>50%

Reverse DCF finds the growth rate needed to justify the current market price using the same WACC and terminal growth assumptions. Not a prediction.

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC × Growth

How the estimated intrinsic value changes with different WACC and growth assumptions.

Most scenarios suggest the stock trades above estimated intrinsic value.

WACC \ Growth 17% 20% 23%
10.0%$42$47$52
11.5%$34$38 ← base$42
13.0%$28$32$36

Each cell shows estimated intrinsic value per share. Green = above current price (undervalued scenario). Red = below current price (overvalued scenario). Center cell = base case.

Score History — 90 Days

Free
90d Low
28
90d High
36
Zone Changes
3

Shopify Stock Valuation — Beer Score Breakdown

Shopify's Beer Score of 33 means that, according to our DCF model, the stock is trading well above our model's estimated intrinsic value. Only an estimated 33% of the price is backed by current fundamentals — 67% appears to be speculation premium.

How Beer Score Is Calculated for SHOP

We pull Shopify's latest SEC filings from EDGAR, run a DCF analysis using a 11.5% WACC and 20% revenue growth rate over 5 years with 3% terminal growth, then compare the resulting model estimate ($38) against the current market price ($118.00). The Beer Score of 33 represents the ratio. Model output varies with assumptions. Learn more about our methodology →

Important Information

Beer Score is an educational indicator, not investment advice. It measures the model-estimated gap between a stock's current market price and an estimated intrinsic value derived from public financial data. A low Beer Score does not mean "sell" and a high score does not mean "buy." Model output varies with assumptions (WACC, growth rate, terminal growth, margins).

Prices shown are indicative reference prices for educational purposes only and are not sourced from an official exchange feed. Data sources include SEC EDGAR filings, indicative market price data, and proprietary DCF models. Scores update daily after market close. For the full ranking of all 45 stocks, visit the Beer Score Heatmap or read Today's Foam Report.

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About This Valuation

Why does Shopify have a Beer Score of 34?
Shopify (SHOP) scores 34 because the stock is currently trading approximately 197% above its estimated intrinsic value of $38. With $1.6B in annual free cash flow and $8.9B in revenue, the company's fundamentals fall well short of justifying the current market price of $112.70 per share. The Beer Score reflects that 34% of the price is backed by estimated fundamental value.
Is SHOP overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our DCF model, Shopify appears significantly overvalued. The estimated intrinsic value of $38 compared to the current price of $112.70 carries a 66% speculation premium, meaning most of the stock price reflects expectations rather than current earnings. This is a model-based estimate using 11.5% WACC and 20% projected growth — not a buy or sell recommendation. The actual fair value depends on assumptions that may change with new earnings data or market conditions.
What assumptions drive the $38 intrinsic value?
The DCF model uses a 11.5% weighted average cost of capital and projects 20% annual revenue growth over five years. Terminal growth is set at 3%. Starting from $1.6B in current free cash flow, these assumptions produce an estimated intrinsic value of $38 per share. The model is most sensitive to the growth rate and WACC inputs — small changes in either significantly alter the output.
What could change Shopify's Beer Score?
Shopify's valuation depends on the shift to become a full commerce operating system beyond storefronts. The logistics divestiture simplified the model but removed a growth narrative. If enterprise adoption of Shopify Plus accelerates and merchant solutions revenue grows faster than subscription, margins could improve. Rising interest rates pressure SMB merchants, Shopify's core customer base.

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