What is Costco Wholesale Corporation's Beer Score?

Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) Beer Score shows what percentage of the stock price is supported by current fundamentals according to our DCF model. The remaining percentage represents an estimated speculation or growth premium.

How is Costco Wholesale Corporation's Beer Score calculated?

Costco Wholesale Corporation's Beer Score uses SEC filings (10-K and 10-Q), a DCF model with weighted average cost of capital, and comparison of the model's estimate to current market price. Model output varies with assumptions. Scores update daily after market close.

COST

Costco Wholesale Corporation — Beer Score

COST · US Equity · Consumer Defensive — Warehouse Club

Market Price (indicative) · Feb 10, 2026

Reference price only. Not an official exchange feed.

/ 100

Updated: Loading...·Model: DCF v1.0

Not investment advice · Model-based estimate

Estimated Value (Beer)

$410.00

--%

Est. Speculation Premium (Foam)

$0.00

--%

🍺 --% Est. Fundamental Value🫧 --% Est. Speculation

Track Score Alerts (Pro) See Model Assumptions ↓

Key Financials

TTM

Revenue$275.2B

Net Income$8.1B

Free Cash Flow$7.84B

P/E Ratio57x

EPS (TTM)$18.20

Market Cap$465B

Total Debt$9.0B

Cash & Equiv.$17.9B

DCF Valuation

Model Estimate

$410

Est. intrinsic value (DCF model)
vs market price

↓

Calculating price premium...

WACC9.0%

Growth Rate (5yr)10%

Terminal Growth3%

Margin of Safety--

Model output varies with assumptions (WACC, growth, margins). This is not a price target or investment recommendation.

Score History — 90 Days

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Costco Wholesale Corporation Stock Valuation — Beer Score Breakdown

Costco Wholesale Corporation's Beer Score shows what percentage of the stock price is backed by current fundamentals according to our DCF model. The remaining percentage represents an estimated speculation or growth premium.

How Beer Score Is Calculated for COST

We pull Costco Wholesale Corporation's latest SEC filings from EDGAR, run a DCF analysis using a 9.0% WACC and 10% revenue growth rate over 5 years with 3% terminal growth, then compare the resulting model estimate ($410) against the current market price. The Beer Score represents the ratio. Model output varies with assumptions. Learn more about our methodology →

DCF Model Notes

Costco operates 891 warehouses worldwide with a 90% membership renewal rate — one of the highest customer retention metrics in retail. The membership model generates $4.8B in high-margin recurring revenue. The business is exceptional, but the stock trades at approximately 57x earnings.

Important Information

Beer Score is an educational indicator, not investment advice. It measures the model-estimated gap between a stock's current market price and an estimated intrinsic value derived from public financial data. A low Beer Score does not mean "sell" and a high score does not mean "buy." Model output varies with assumptions (WACC, growth rate, terminal growth, margins).

Prices shown are indicative reference prices for educational purposes only and are not sourced from an official exchange feed. Data sources include SEC EDGAR filings, indicative market price data, and proprietary DCF models. Scores update daily after market close. For the full ranking of all stocks, visit the Beer Score Heatmap or read Today's Foam Report.

Track Costco Wholesale Corporation's Beer Score Over Time

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About This Valuation

Why does Costco Wholesale Corporation have a Beer Score of 40?

Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) scores 40 because the stock is currently trading approximately 148% above its estimated intrinsic value of $410. With $7.84B in annual free cash flow and $275.2B in revenue, the company's fundamentals partially justify the current market price of $1018.48 per share. The Beer Score reflects that 40% of the price is backed by estimated fundamental value.

Is COST overvalued or undervalued?

Based on our DCF model, Costco Wholesale Corporation appears significantly overvalued. The estimated intrinsic value of $410 compared to the current price of $1018.48 carries a 60% speculation premium, meaning most of the stock price reflects expectations rather than current earnings. This is a model-based estimate using 9.0% WACC and 10% projected growth — not a buy or sell recommendation. The actual fair value depends on assumptions that may change with new earnings data or market conditions.

What assumptions drive the $410 intrinsic value?

The DCF model uses a 9.0% weighted average cost of capital and projects 10% annual revenue growth over five years. Terminal growth is set at 3%. Starting from $7.84B in current free cash flow, these assumptions produce an estimated intrinsic value of $410 per share. The model is most sensitive to the growth rate and WACC inputs — small changes in either significantly alter the output.

What could change Costco Wholesale Corporation's Beer Score?

Costco trades at premium multiples relative to its grocery-margin business model. A decline in consumer spending or membership renewal rates below the current 93% would pressure valuation. Competition from Walmart+ and Amazon Prime on delivery convenience could erode foot traffic. The stock's 60% speculation premium prices in perfect execution with no margin compression for years.

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