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UPS

United Parcel Service Inc. — Beer Score

UPS · US Equity · Industrials — Logistics
$142.00
Market Price (indicative) · Feb 7, 2026
−$1.20 (−0.84%) today
Reference price only. Not an official exchange feed.
96
/ 100
Pure Beer — Est. 96% Fundamental Value
Updated: Feb 7, 2026 16:30 UTC·Filing: 10-K (Jan 29, 2026)·Model: DCF v1.0
Not investment advice · Model-based estimate
Estimated Value (Beer)
$136.32
96%
Est. Speculation Premium (Foam)
$5.68
4%
🍺 96% Est. Fundamental Value🫧 4% Est. Speculation
Track Score Alerts (Pro) See Model Assumptions ↓

Key Financials

TTM
Revenue$91.0B
Net Income$6.7B
Free Cash Flow$9.2B
P/E Ratio16.8x
EPS (TTM)$8.46
Market Cap$121B
Total Debt$19.4B
Cash & Equiv.$5.8B

DCF Valuation

Model Estimate
$136
Est. intrinsic value (DCF model)
vs $142.00 market price
↓
Our model suggests the current price is ~4% above the estimated intrinsic value. The market may be pricing in growth beyond current fundamentals.
WACC8.5%
Growth Rate (5yr)4%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Margin of Safety~−4%

Model output varies with assumptions (WACC, growth, margins). This is not a price target or investment recommendation.

Score History — 90 Days

Pro
90d Low
91
90d High
97
Zone Changes
1
▸_
Unlock Full Score HistoryAlerts · Chart export · Peer compare

UPS Stock Valuation — Beer Score Breakdown

UPS's Beer Score of 96 means that, according to our DCF model, the stock is well-supported by fundamentals. An estimated 96% of the stock price is backed by earnings, cash flow, and assets.

How Beer Score Is Calculated for UPS

We pull UPS's latest SEC filings from EDGAR, run a DCF analysis using a 8.5% WACC and 4% revenue growth rate over 5 years with 2.5% terminal growth, then compare the resulting model estimate ($136) against the current market price ($142.00). The Beer Score of 96 represents the ratio. Model output varies with assumptions. Learn more about our methodology →

Important Information

Beer Score is an educational indicator, not investment advice. It measures the model-estimated gap between a stock's current market price and an estimated intrinsic value derived from public financial data. A low Beer Score does not mean "sell" and a high score does not mean "buy." Model output varies with assumptions (WACC, growth rate, terminal growth, margins).

Prices shown are indicative reference prices for educational purposes only and are not sourced from an official exchange feed. Data sources include SEC EDGAR filings, indicative market price data, and proprietary DCF models. Scores update daily after market close. For the full ranking of all 45 stocks, visit the Beer Score Heatmap or read Today's Foam Report.

Track UPS's Beer Score Over Time

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About This Valuation

Why does UPS have a Beer Score of 100?
UPS (UPS) scores 100 because the stock is currently trading approximately 14% below its estimated intrinsic value of $136. With $9.2B in annual free cash flow and $91.0B in revenue, the company's fundamentals more than support the current market price of $119.24 per share. The Beer Score reflects that 100% of the price is backed by estimated fundamental value.
Is UPS overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our DCF model, UPS appears undervalued. The estimated intrinsic value of $136 compared to the current price of $119.24 suggests a meaningful margin of safety. This is a model-based estimate using 8.5% WACC and 4% projected growth — not a buy or sell recommendation. The actual fair value depends on assumptions that may change with new earnings data or market conditions.
What assumptions drive the $136 intrinsic value?
The DCF model uses a 8.5% weighted average cost of capital and projects 4% annual revenue growth over five years. Terminal growth is set at 2.5%. Starting from $9.2B in current free cash flow, these assumptions produce an estimated intrinsic value of $136 per share. The model is most sensitive to the growth rate and WACC inputs — small changes in either significantly alter the output.
What could change UPS's Beer Score?
UPS scores 100 because its current price reflects pessimistic volume assumptions. If e-commerce parcel volumes recover from the post-pandemic hangover and the new Teamsters contract costs are absorbed through pricing and automation, margins should expand. However, competition from Amazon's logistics network and USPS undercutting on last-mile pricing limits pricing power.

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