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Palantir Technologies Inc. — Beer Score

PLTR · US Equity · Tech — AI & Data Analytics
$78.00
Market Price (indicative) · Mar 22, 2026
−$1.40 (−1.76%) today
Reference price only. Not an official exchange feed.
28
/ 100
Heavy Foam — Est. 72% Speculation
526% premium to fair value
Updated: Feb 7, 2026 16:30 UTC·Filing: 10-Q (Nov 4, 2025)·Model: DCF v1.0
Not investment advice · Model-based estimate
Estimated Value (Beer)
$21.84
28%
Est. Speculation Premium (Foam)
$56.16
72%
🍺 28% Est. Fundamental Value🫧 72% Est. Speculation
Track Score Alerts (Coming Soon) See Model Assumptions ↓

Key Financials

TTM
Revenue$2.9B
Net Income$0.5B
Free Cash Flow$0.7B
P/E Ratio364x
EPS (TTM)$0.21
Market Cap$177B
Total Debt$0.2B
Cash & Equiv.$3.8B

DCF Valuation

Model Estimate
$21
Est. intrinsic value (DCF model)
vs $78.00 market price
↓
Our model suggests the current price is ~257% above the estimated intrinsic value. The market may be pricing in growth beyond current fundamentals.
WACC12.0%
Growth Rate (5yr)22%
Terminal Growth3%

Model output varies with assumptions (WACC, growth, margins). This is not a price target or investment recommendation.

What the Market Is Pricing In

Reverse DCF
>50%
Implied annual FCF growth rate the
market is pricing into PLTR
!
At the current price, the market is implying >50% annual growth to justify the valuation, versus our 22.0% base case.
Model Growth (5yr)22.0%
Implied Growth>50%

Reverse DCF finds the growth rate needed to justify the current market price using the same WACC and terminal growth assumptions. Not a prediction.

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC × Growth

How the estimated intrinsic value changes with different WACC and growth assumptions.

Most scenarios suggest the stock trades above estimated intrinsic value.

WACC \ Growth 19% 22% 25%
10.5%$23$26$29
12.0%$19$21 ← base$23
13.5%$16$18$20

Each cell shows estimated intrinsic value per share. Green = above current price (undervalued scenario). Red = below current price (overvalued scenario). Center cell = base case.

Score History — 90 Days

Free
90d Low
24
90d High
34
Zone Changes
4

Palantir Stock Valuation — Beer Score Breakdown

Palantir's Beer Score of 28 means that, according to our DCF model, the stock is trading well above our model's estimated intrinsic value. Only an estimated 28% of the price is backed by current fundamentals — 72% appears to be speculation premium.

How Beer Score Is Calculated for PLTR

We pull Palantir's latest SEC filings from EDGAR, run a DCF analysis using a 12.0% WACC and 22% revenue growth rate over 5 years with 3% terminal growth, then compare the resulting model estimate ($21) against the current market price ($78.00). The Beer Score of 28 represents the ratio. Model output varies with assumptions. Learn more about our methodology →

Important Information

Beer Score is an educational indicator, not investment advice. It measures the model-estimated gap between a stock's current market price and an estimated intrinsic value derived from public financial data. A low Beer Score does not mean "sell" and a high score does not mean "buy." Model output varies with assumptions (WACC, growth rate, terminal growth, margins).

Prices shown are indicative reference prices for educational purposes only and are not sourced from an official exchange feed. Data sources include SEC EDGAR filings, indicative market price data, and proprietary DCF models. Scores update daily after market close. For the full ranking of all 45 stocks, visit the Beer Score Heatmap or read Today's Foam Report.

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About This Valuation

Why does Palantir have a Beer Score of 16?
Palantir (PLTR) scores 16 because the stock is currently trading approximately 526% above its estimated intrinsic value of $21. With $0.7B in annual free cash flow and $2.9B in revenue, the company's fundamentals fall well short of justifying the current market price of $131.41 per share. The Beer Score reflects that 16% of the price is backed by estimated fundamental value.
Is PLTR overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our DCF model, Palantir appears significantly overvalued. The estimated intrinsic value of $21 compared to the current price of $131.41 carries a 84% speculation premium, meaning most of the stock price reflects expectations rather than current earnings. This is a model-based estimate using 12.0% WACC and 22% projected growth — not a buy or sell recommendation. The actual fair value depends on assumptions that may change with new earnings data or market conditions.
What assumptions drive the $21 intrinsic value?
The DCF model uses a 12.0% weighted average cost of capital and projects 22% annual revenue growth over five years. Terminal growth is set at 3%. Starting from $0.7B in current free cash flow, these assumptions produce an estimated intrinsic value of $21 per share. The model is most sensitive to the growth rate and WACC inputs — small changes in either significantly alter the output.
What could change Palantir's Beer Score?
Palantir's 84% foam premium reflects a stock priced at 188x current free cash flow. AIP platform commercial growth has been strong, but the stock assumes Palantir becomes a dominant enterprise AI platform rivaling Salesforce and Microsoft. Government contract revenue is lumpy and budget-dependent. Any deceleration in commercial customer acquisition would compress the multiple rapidly.

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