How is Eli Lilly and Company's Beer Score calculated?

Eli Lilly and Company's Beer Score uses SEC filings (10-K and 10-Q), a DCF model with weighted average cost of capital, and comparison of the model's estimate to current market price. Model output varies with assumptions. Scores update daily after market close.

LLY

Eli Lilly and Company — Beer Score

Q: What is Eli Lilly and Company's Beer Score?

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) Beer Score shows what percentage of the stock price is supported by current fundamentals according to our DCF model. The remaining percentage represents an estimated speculation or growth premium.

LLY · US Equity · Healthcare — Drug Manufacturers

Market Price (indicative) · Feb 10, 2026

Reference price only. Not an official exchange feed.

/ 100

Updated: Loading...·Model: DCF v1.0

Not investment advice · Model-based estimate

Estimated Value (Beer)

$175.00

--%

Est. Speculation Premium (Foam)

$0.00

--%

🍺 --% Est. Fundamental Value🫧 --% Est. Speculation

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Key Financials

TTM

Revenue$65.2B

Net Income$20.6B

Free Cash Flow$3.76B

P/E Ratio51x

EPS (TTM)$20.44

Market Cap$940B

Total Debt$28.8B

Cash & Equiv.$3.2B

DCF Valuation

Model Estimate

$175

Est. intrinsic value (DCF model)
vs market price

↓

Calculating price premium...

WACC9.0%

Growth Rate (5yr)25%

Terminal Growth3%

Margin of Safety--

Model output varies with assumptions (WACC, growth, margins). This is not a price target or investment recommendation.

Score History — 90 Days

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Eli Lilly and Company Stock Valuation — Beer Score Breakdown

Eli Lilly and Company's Beer Score shows what percentage of the stock price is backed by current fundamentals according to our DCF model. The remaining percentage represents an estimated speculation or growth premium.

How Beer Score Is Calculated for LLY

We pull Eli Lilly and Company's latest SEC filings from EDGAR, run a DCF analysis using a 9.0% WACC and 25% revenue growth rate over 5 years with 3% terminal growth, then compare the resulting model estimate ($175) against the current market price. The Beer Score represents the ratio. Model output varies with assumptions. Learn more about our methodology →

DCF Model Notes

FCF appears low ($3.76B) relative to earnings ($20.6B) because Eli Lilly is investing heavily in manufacturing capacity for its blockbuster GLP-1 drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound. Capital expenditures exceeded $10 billion in 2024.

Important Information

Beer Score is an educational indicator, not investment advice. It measures the model-estimated gap between a stock's current market price and an estimated intrinsic value derived from public financial data. A low Beer Score does not mean "sell" and a high score does not mean "buy." Model output varies with assumptions (WACC, growth rate, terminal growth, margins).

Prices shown are indicative reference prices for educational purposes only and are not sourced from an official exchange feed. Data sources include SEC EDGAR filings, indicative market price data, and proprietary DCF models. Scores update daily after market close. For the full ranking of all stocks, visit the Beer Score Heatmap or read Today's Foam Report.

Track Eli Lilly and Company's Beer Score Over Time

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About This Valuation

Why does Eli Lilly and Company have a Beer Score of 17?

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) scores 17 because the stock is currently trading approximately 494% above its estimated intrinsic value of $175. With $3.76B in annual free cash flow and $65.2B in revenue, the company's fundamentals fall well short of justifying the current market price of $1040.00 per share. The Beer Score reflects that 17% of the price is backed by estimated fundamental value.

Is LLY overvalued or undervalued?

Based on our DCF model, Eli Lilly and Company appears significantly overvalued. The estimated intrinsic value of $175 compared to the current price of $1040.00 carries a 83% speculation premium, meaning most of the stock price reflects expectations rather than current earnings. This is a model-based estimate using 9.0% WACC and 25% projected growth — not a buy or sell recommendation. The actual fair value depends on assumptions that may change with new earnings data or market conditions.

What assumptions drive the $175 intrinsic value?

The DCF model uses a 9.0% weighted average cost of capital and projects 25% annual revenue growth over five years. Terminal growth is set at 3%. Starting from $3.76B in current free cash flow, these assumptions produce an estimated intrinsic value of $175 per share. The model is most sensitive to the growth rate and WACC inputs — small changes in either significantly alter the output.

What could change Eli Lilly and Company's Beer Score?

Eli Lilly's 83% foam premium prices in GLP-1 obesity drug dominance for the next decade. If tirzepatide (Mounjaro/Zepbound) faces efficacy concerns, manufacturing constraints, or pricing pressure from Medicare negotiation, the valuation unwinds rapidly. Competition from Novo Nordisk's semaglutide and emerging oral GLP-1 drugs adds risk. The market assumes near-perfect execution on a single drug class.

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